From the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader to retaliatory strikes across nine countries, the US-Israeli campaign has redrawn the geopolitical map of the region in under a week.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched what has become the most significant joint military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Codenamed Operation Epic Fury by Washington and Operation Roaring Lion by Tel Aviv, the coordinated strikes targeted Iranian leadership, military infrastructure, and nuclear facilities across multiple cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. As the campaign enters its seventh day, the conflict has already killed over 1,300 people in Iran and drawn retaliatory strikes against nine countries in the region, according to reporting by Al Jazeera's live tracker.
How It Started: The Final Hours Before the Strikes
The military action did not emerge in a vacuum. It followed months of escalating tensions that included failed nuclear negotiations, an IAEA discovery of hidden enriched uranium, and massive internal protests that had swept through Iran since late December 2025. As the UK House of Commons Library briefing details, the Iranian regime was arguably at its weakest point in years, facing simultaneous economic crisis, infrastructure failure, and a protest movement that had spread to over 100 cities.
Critically, diplomatic channels had not been exhausted when the strikes began. On February 25, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a diplomatic agreement was within reach ahead of renewed talks in Geneva. Just hours before the strikes on February 27, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi announced that Iran had agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and to submit to full IAEA verification — a position that multiple outlets, including CNBC, characterised as a potential breakthrough.
However, the Trump administration presented a different picture. US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff stated that Iran had rejected a zero-enrichment proposal and had boasted about its stockpile of 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. According to anonymous US sources reported by multiple outlets, Trump authorised the strike based on intelligence that Iran was planning a preemptive missile launch — though an unspecified Pentagon source told Congress in closed-door briefings that no such intelligence existed, as compiled by Wikipedia from multiple sources.
Day-by-Day: How the War Unfolded
At 2:30 AM EST, Trump released an eight-minute video statement on Truth Social announcing the strikes. The opening salvo struck Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah simultaneously. The compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was destroyed, killing him and several officials including Ali Shamkhani. Iran's military responded with its Operation True Promise IV, launching ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and US bases across the Gulf. The deadliest single incident of the entire conflict occurred on this day — a strike on an elementary girls' school in Minab in southeastern Iran that killed approximately 180 children and staff, an event still under investigation by the US, as CNBC reported.
The campaign expanded rapidly. Israel confirmed its pilots were flying over Iranian airspace. Iran broadened its retaliatory strikes to energy infrastructure across the Gulf, with the IRGC declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed. Around 40 buildings in Tel Aviv were damaged by Iranian strikes on the first day, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points on March 2 as markets reacted to the expanding conflict. Khamenei's wife was confirmed dead from injuries sustained in the initial strikes. Some Iranians celebrated his death in the streets while security forces opened fire on celebrants.
Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones in retaliation by this point, according to US Admiral Brad Cooper. Strikes hit the US embassy in Saudi Arabia and near the US consulate in Dubai. The Natanz nuclear facility was struck during operations. Anti-war protests erupted across the United States — in Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Portland — while parts of the Iranian diaspora held separate celebratory rallies welcoming regime change, as CNN reported.
The bombardment intensified significantly. Iran's Foreign Ministry reported that 33 civilian locations had been struck nationwide, including hospitals, schools, the Tehran Grand Bazaar, and the historic Golestan Palace complex — a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The Azadi Stadium, Iran's largest sports complex, was also bombed. Israel claimed near-complete air superiority, stating it had destroyed 80% of Iran's air defence systems, as Al Jazeera reported on Day 7. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned the bombardment was about to intensify further, and Israel announced a new phase targeting regime infrastructure.
The Assassination of Khamenei: A Power Vacuum
The killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — who had ruled Iran for over three decades and held ultimate power over its military, judiciary, and foreign policy — created an immediate leadership crisis. Reports have circulated that his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, could succeed him. However, Trump explicitly rejected this possibility, stating he intends to play a direct role in selecting Iran's next leader, calling Mojtaba an unacceptable choice, as reported by Al Jazeera.
At the same time, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi has declared there is no reason to negotiate with the United States, asserting that Washington cannot be trusted. Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that Iranian forces are prepared for a potential US ground invasion. President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for mediation efforts to be directed at the US and Israel rather than Tehran.
Regional Fallout: A Conflict Without Borders
Perhaps the most alarming dimension of the conflict is how rapidly it spread beyond Iran's borders. Tehran has launched retaliatory strikes against targets in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and even hit a runway at a UK military base in Cyprus. QatarEnergy was forced to halt operations at the world's largest LNG export facility after an Iranian drone attack, according to Bloomberg.
The Gulf Cooperation Council convened an emergency meeting and ordered the Iranian regime to cease attacks on Arab countries immediately. Meanwhile, approximately 20,000 Americans have evacuated the Middle East, with the US State Department arranging charter flights for those still seeking to leave, according to Al Jazeera's Day 7 report.
Trump's Stated Objective: Regime Change
Unlike previous US military engagements in the Middle East, the Trump administration has been unusually explicit about its goals. In his February 28 video statement, Trump effectively declared the purpose of the strikes to be regime change. He urged IRGC members to lay down their weapons in exchange for immunity — or face destruction. In a subsequent interview with The Atlantic, Trump stated that Iran's new leadership wanted to resume negotiations and that he had agreed to talk. In a separate interview with the Daily Mail, he characterised the conflict as a planned four-week process.
The Atlantic Council's expert panel offered a more cautious assessment, noting that neither protests nor airstrikes alone are likely to end the regime's grip on power. Historically, regime change in Iran has required the security establishment to either stand aside or switch sides — and while the breadth of economic pain and the regime's brutal crackdown on protesters make this moment unique, the outcome remains deeply uncertain. As one analyst noted, the 1979 revolution itself took a year to unfold.
What Happens Next
The conflict remains intensely fluid. Iran's ballistic missile attacks have reportedly fallen by 90% since the first day, while drone attacks have dropped by 83%, suggesting degraded Iranian capabilities. Yet the humanitarian toll continues to mount — at least 181 of the more than 1,300 killed in Iran are children, according to UNICEF. Internet access across Iran has dropped to 4% of normal levels, severely limiting independent reporting from within the country.
The international community remains deeply divided. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed European support for the US actions. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy endorsed the strikes. Spain denied the use of its military bases, prompting economic threats from Trump. France authorised US forces to use French bases. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization condemned the use of force as unacceptable, as compiled from global reactions reporting.
This remains a developing story. Geopolitics Tracker will continue to aggregate and condense reporting from the world's most reputable sources as the situation evolves.
Sources & Further Reading
This article synthesises reporting from: Al Jazeera — Day 7 Coverage • Al Jazeera — Death Toll Live Tracker • UK House of Commons Library Briefing • CNBC — Iran Conflict Analysis • CNBC — Live Updates • Atlantic Council — Expert Reactions • CNN • NPR • Wikipedia — 2026 Iran War