United KingdomRatesA rate decision and new forecasts follow the Budget.
The decision
The MPC decision and Monetary Policy Report are scheduled for 5 November.
Known baseline
Bank Rate was 3.75% on 7 October. The November decision follows the 28 October Budget by eight days.
How it reaches markets
The interaction of the fiscal package and the inflation outlook can move sterling and short-term gilt yields. Longer maturities also reflect bond supply.
What can limit the effect
The MPC sets rates independently; fiscal policy affects its economic outlook but does not dictate its vote.
Scenarios to compare
GT Team analysis · outcomes relative to expectations
More persistent inflation outlook
Rates may be expected to remain higher for longer.
Evidence to checkCompare the forecast assumptions and vote split, not just the headline rate.
Weaker demand outlook
Easing expectations may increase, while earnings expectations soften.
Evidence to checkCheck whether the report attributes weakness to temporary or persistent factors.
What would weaken the thesis
A dovish vote split without lower expected future rates would undermine a simple easing interpretation.