Event odds and reported fund positions.
-2,107,224
Net contracts · 20 Oct 2026
+98,713 vs 13 Oct 2026
| Date | Net contracts |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | -2,107,224 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | -2,205,937 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | -2,139,785 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | -2,036,432 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | -1,926,947 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | -1,868,126 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | -1,938,754 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | -2,062,502 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | -2,134,339 |
| 18 Aug 2026 | -2,229,013 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | -2,163,714 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | -2,231,670 |
-22,890
Net contracts · 20 Oct 2026
+10,783 vs 13 Oct 2026
| Date | Net contracts |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | -22,890 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | -33,673 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | -25,043 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | -14,161 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | 7,423 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | 23,170 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | -49,098 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | -102,188 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | -77,042 |
| 18 Aug 2026 | -67,971 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | -53,070 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | -60,825 |
-68,840
Net contracts · 20 Oct 2026
-839 vs 13 Oct 2026
| Date | Net contracts |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | -68,840 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | -68,001 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | -44,261 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | -39,265 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | -26,694 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | -28,156 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | -33,285 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | -38,173 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | -38,359 |
| 18 Aug 2026 | -57,716 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | -60,600 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | -52,205 |
Net = long minus short contracts; spreading positions are excluded. CFTC reports usually arrive on Friday for Tuesday’s positions. These can include hedges and basis trades. Net Treasury shorts do not establish a simple bearish rate view.
Prices from the election market; separate from the fund positions above.
CME FedWatch converts federal-funds futures prices into meeting probabilities. Check its current distribution against the policy baseline before the FOMC decision.
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