Country exposures.

Where external shocks enter the economy.

Brazil

Commodity demand, the real and fiscal credibility. Rate and budget surprises can offset a favourable export cycle.

External demand, trade restrictions and domestic investment. Gross exports do not measure domestic value added.

Export demand, industrial energy costs and euro-area rates. National data do not represent the whole euro area.

Sterling, gilt issuance and imported costs. Read fiscal decisions alongside the inflation outlook.

Imported energy, rupee funding and domestic demand. Reserves provide context rather than a currency forecast.

Yen funding and imported energy. Currency changes can help exporters while raising domestic input costs.

Dollar funding, Treasury supply and domestic demand. Compare rate surprises with the fiscal calendar.