European UnionTradeImporters begin buying certificates covering 2026 emissions.
The decision
EU law provides for certificate sales from 1 February 2027.
Known baseline
The Q3 2026 certificate price was €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, published 5 October. Q2 was €75.28: a €7.04 increase. These are quarterly reference prices, not a flat tariff on import value.
How it reaches markets
The liability depends on embedded emissions and applicable adjustments. Higher costs may affect margins, sourcing decisions and prices for covered imports.
What can limit the effect
Carbon intensity, carbon prices already paid and the treatment of EU free allocation matter; multiplying all import value by the certificate price is invalid.
Scenarios to compare
GT Team analysis · outcomes relative to expectations
Higher effective liability
Importers may switch suppliers or seek price concessions.
Evidence to checkCompare verified emissions and adjustments for the same product.
Lower effective liability
Margin pressure may be smaller than headline carbon prices imply.
Evidence to checkCheck recognised carbon payments and the relevant allocation adjustment.
What would weaken the thesis
If product-level liabilities are small after adjustments or passed through to customers, a broad exporter-margin squeeze is not supported.